Notre prochaine séance aura lieu mercredi 7 avril, 18h (heure de Paris), en ligne (lien d’inscription disponible ci-dessous). Elle recevra :

 Eric Magnin LADYSS, University of Paris, France  

Nikolay Nenovsky CRIISEA, University of Picardie Jules Verne, France / Bulgarian National Bank, Bulgaria / SU Higher School of Economics, Russia

sur le thème suivant :

 Soft monetary constraints in Developed and BRICS countries.

Insights from J. Kornai’s theory.

La séance se tiendra en français

Contraintes monétaires lâches dans les pays développés et les BRICS.

Réflexions inspirées par la théorie de J. Kornai.

Lien d’inscription (attention, le lien sera retiré le 6/04 au soir ou au plus tard le 7/04 à midi) :

http://www.inalco.fr/webform/seminaire-brics-2020-2021

Summary: From the fourth quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2020, the monetary base in the euro area grew by 330%, the money supply by 61% and inflation measured by the consumer price index – only 17%. Interest rates are around zero and negative, inflation is low, and we often register deflation (A similar trend is observed in the United States). This discrepancy between the growth of money and prices has not only practical dimensions for the ECB and FED monetary policy, but also a theoretical significance. At the same time, in most of the developing and BRICS countries, the trend is exactly the opposite, despite moderate debt levels – depreciation of national currencies, inflation, and therefore rising interest rates. This is observed in Brazil, Russia, Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina, and others. These dynamics have led to extreme reforms, such as the one in Venezuela, where the country is fully dollarized.

In this contribution, we propose an interpretation of these trends on the basis of concepts developed by J. Kornai in his economics of shortage analysis, which we apply to the sovereign debt market of both groups of countries. Specifically, we introduce the concepts of “soft monetary constraint”, “safety assets shortage”, etc., in a context of financial repression. The studied processes in the monetary policy of the two groups of countries are closely related, and they are part of a growing economic and monetary nationalism, as well as an increasing role of government and fiscal policy.

Éric Magnin est maître de conférences HDR en économie à l’Université de Paris. Il est membre du Ladyss (UMR CNRS), où il codirige un axe de recherches sur les transitions. Ses travaux portent sur le changement systémique en Europe centrale et orientale et la diversité des capitalismes.

Nikolay Nenovsky est professeur d’économie au CRIISEA, l’Université de Picardie Jules Verne, chercheur associé à la l’HSE de Moscou, et membre du Conseil des Gouverneur de la Banque Centrale de Bulgarie. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Nikolay-Nenovsky

The next session of our BRICs seminar will be held online, on Wednesday March, 17th, 6:00 PM, Paris Time. The theme of the session will be the following:

Comparing public health policies and performances among BRICS countries  – and beyond.

To address this topic, we will receive :

Antoine Flahault, Pr. Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, Switzerland :

To Live With or Zero COVID in BRICS?

The presentation will assess the compared strategies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa facing the Covid-19 Pandemic.

and

Michael K. Gusmano, PhD, Professor, Rutgers University and Hastings Institute and  Victor G. Rodwin, PhD, MPH Professor, New York University :

Covid-19 and Global Cities: New York City (NYC) London, Paris, Tokyo, Moscow

Based on a comparison of excess mortality we compare and assess the responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in five global cities — London, Paris, Moscow, New York City (NYC) and Tokyo.

Here is the link to the inscription form : http://www.inalco.fr/webform/seminaire-brics-2020-2021