Séance du 27 janvier 2021 (en ligne) : Bernard Billaudot sur « Made in Maroc »

La séance du séminaire BRICs a eu lieu en ligne le  27 janvier 2021 de 18h à 20h

Elle a reçu :

Bernard Billaudot

CREG- Université Grenoble-Alpes

sur le thème : Les pays en développement à l’âge de la mondialisation : L’exemple du Maroc

De 2010 à 2018, un programme de recherche « Made in Maroc-Made in Monde » traitant de l’industrialisation du Maroc a été réalisé par une équipe de chercheurs et de doctorants animée par Noureddine El Aoufi[1]. Les résultats de ce programme ont été publiés il y a peu[2]. Ils sont révélateurs du type d’industrialisation à laquelle les PED sont à même d’accéder dans le cadre de la mondialisation, même si cet exemple n’est pas généralisable à tous points de vue. L’analyse a porté pour l’essentiel sur la période postérieure à la fin des années 90, soit le moment où le choix d’assurer le développement du Maroc par une insertion de son économie dans l’économie mondiale a été acté et politiquement assumé.

Le plan retenu pour présenter les résultats de ce programme et ce qu’il apporte consiste en trois étapes : la problématique théorique de départ (section 1), les résultats factuels dont les principaux proviennent d’une enquête réalisée dans le cadre du programme ((section 2) et l’interprétation de ces résultats (section 3).

Dans la dernière section, je passe à un propos plus personnel sur la portée et les limites du type de développement que les PED sont à même de réaliser dans le cadre de la mondialisation réellement existante, ce processus totalement nouveau qui a débuté dans les années 80 et s’est accéléré au cours des vingt premières années du XXIe siècle (section 4)[3].

[1] Il a été porté et financé par l’Académie Hassan II des sciences et des techniques du Maroc.

[2] El Aoufi et Billaudot, 2020, trois volumes.

[3] Étant donné le temps disponible, mon intervention lors du séminaire s’en tiendra aux trois premiers points.

Ancien polytechnicien (1960), Bernard Billaudot a d’abord travaillé à l’INSEE (comptes des entreprises de la comptabilité nationale), puis à la Direction de la Prévision du ministère des Finances, où il a été chef du bureau des prévisions à court terme. Il est ensuite passé à l’Université pour se consacrer à la recherche. Il est, avec Michel Aglietta et Robert Boyer, l’un des membres fondateurs de l’École de la régulation. Il a été directeur de l’Institut de recherche sur la production et le développement (IREPD de Grenoble). Il collabore activement avec le Professeur El Aoufi à la recherche sur le Maroc dans le cadre du LED depuis la fin des années 90.

 

Séance du 13 janvier 2021, 16h : Yuan Zhigang sur l’économie chinoise dans la pandémie de la Covid-19

L’équipe d’organisation du séminaire BRICs vous adresse ses meilleurs voeux pour cette année 2021, au premier rang desquels la santé et un retour à une certaine normalité.

La 6ème séance du séminaire s’est tenue mercredi 13 janvier 2021 à 16h en ligne.

 

Yuan Zhigang,

School of Economics, Fudan University, Schanghai.

Le titre en est :

« L’économie chinoise dans la pandémie de la Covid-19 : défis pour la croissance et les politiques »

Ci-dessous le ppt de la séance :

Yuan Zhegang seminaire BRICs 20210114

 

Présentation de la thématique et de l’intervenant en anglais) :

A sudden epidemic outbreak in late 2019 has reshaped the global economy. Affected by the epidemic, the global economy has plunged into an unprecedented recession since the second World War. The economic growth of all countries has slowed down, and the stock of sovereign debt is expected to rise sharply. China will be the only major economy to achieve positive economic growth in 2020.

As a result of the epidemic, China’s consumption, trade and investment all declined a lot in the first quarter, with the secondary and tertiary industries suffering the greatest negative impact. The Chinese government adopted a more proactive fiscal policy in order to protect employment, basic livelihood and market entities immediately in the face of the epidemic. The People’s Bank of China has also used a variety of supportive monetary policies to ensure that funds flow into the small, medium and micro businesses which are most affected. In terms of epidemic prevention and control, China has also adopted a « zero infection policy » which is completely different from the West and achieved better results.

The basic features of China’s rapid economic recovery from the second quarter are as follows.

  1. The asynchronism between the production and demand of domestic and foreign leads to an unanticipated recovery of China’s net exports, and the circulation of global economy reappear.
  2. Fixed asset investment has been generally stable, but manufacturing investment is still a drag on further recovery of fixed asset investment.
  3. In terms of consumption, the recovery of domestic supply was significantly faster than that of demand, and the recovery of demand for durable consumer goods was much faster than that of services.
  4. The increase in uncertainty caused by COVID-19 has led to a significant increase in precautionary savings and hindered the recovery of consumer spending.
  5. The asymmetric impact of COVID-19 on employment and household income has a greater negative impact on low-income groups.

China’s GDP is expected to grow by 6% in the fourth quarter and 1.9% for the full year, but the biggest obstacle to a sustained recovery will remain insufficient aggregate demand. During the 14th five-year Plan, China will strive to build a strong domestic market, increase domestic demand, and form the « dual circulation » growth pattern.

YUAN Zhigang is professor of economics at the school of economics, Fudan University. He is also director of the Employment and Social Security Research Center, academic director of the faculty of economics and management of East China Normal University. After he received his Ph.D. degree in economics from the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales in 1993, he has been working at the School of Economics, Fudan University, where he served as the school dean from 2004 to 2015. Due to his contributions to economics researches and teaching, he was named the distinguished professor of the Changjiang Scholars Program in 2007 and National Outstanding Teacher in 2006 by the Ministry of Education of China. He has been a consultant to numerous government organizations including the Fujian Provincial People’s Government, the Shanghai Municipal Government, and was member of the Chinese Ministry of Labor and Social Security Advisory Committee. He was vice president of the Shanghai Economist Society (2007-2017), member of the international academic committee of La Fondation de la Maison des Sciences de l’Homme (FMSH) in France(2013-2015).

His research interests include various macroeconomic topics covering employment, social security system, consumption, financial reforms and the real estate market. Over 200 papers and 20 books were published. He has been the principal investigator of a variety of national research projects, including key or major programs funded by the National Social Science Foundation, the Ministry of Education or other government institutions.

 

 

 

 

Parution du livre d’Arun Kumar, « Indian Economy Greatest Crisis: Impact of Coronavirus and the Road Ahead », Penguin Random House India, 2020.

ARUN KUMAR

 Indian Economy’s Greatest Crisis. Impact of Coronavirus and the Road Ahead

An in-depth analysis of the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Indian Economy

  December 2020 | EBURY PRESS| Penguin Random House India

‘Desperate times call for desperate measures.’ The outbreak of COVID-19 aptly justifies this expression as the world faces an unprecedented situation. But what is so unusual about the coronavirus, especially since viral attacks-H1N1, Ebola and Nipah-have taken place earlier as well? How has it affected India and the world? What are the socio-economic implications for India? How has India’s response been to the coronavirus? What is more important-life or livelihood? How can India recover from the sudden economic shock caused by the pandemic?

This book is an attempt to answer these and many more such questions.

The coronavirus hit the world in December 2019 like a hurricane. What started as a medical emergency soon turned into an economic one. No global financial crisis has ever hit humanity as hard as COVID-19. The world, therefore, was caught ill prepared when the pandemic struck. The situation, to say the least, is worse than a war. The situation in India is no different: In terms of the number of cases reported, it is second only to the United States.

This book highlights the enormity of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on India. It critically examines the government’s efforts to control the disease and mitigate its adverse effects on Indian economy and society. Making a compelling argument that an economy is not like a rubber ball, which, if dropped on a hard surface, will bounce back to its original position, the author provides incisive reasons to why economic recovery will be slow and not ‘V-shaped’. He, however, cogently suggests that good governance, a robust public-health system, and clean and representative politics are key to bringing India’s economy back on track.

ARUN KUMAR

Arun Kumar is a veteran Indian economist. He studied at the Delhi University, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) and Princeton University, the US, and taught economics at JNU for three decades, until 2015. His areas of interest include public finance, development economics, public policy and macroeconomics. Kumar has written widely on these subjects, both in the popular press and in academic journals. At present, he is the Malcolm S. Adiseshiah chair professor at the Institute of Social Sciences, New Delhi. Some of the finest books authored by him include Indian Economy Since Independence: Persisting Colonial Disruption (2013), Understanding the Black Economy and Black Money in India: An Enquiry into Causes, Consequences and Remedies (2017), Demonetization and the Black Economy (2017) and The Ground Scorching Tax (2019).