Announcement of the next BRICs seminar: Ruben Enikolopov and Vladislav Inozemtsev on Russian economy’s situation and perspectives

With the Support of CREE-Inalco, the next session of our BRICs seminar will be held on Wednesday, April 3rd, 6:00 PM (Paris Time), in presence and online, at the Maison de la Recherche de l’Inalco, 2 Rue de Lille, 75007 Paris, Salle Sylvestre de Sacy (2nd Floor).

We will have the pleasure to receive:

Ruben Enikolopov (Universita Pompeu Fabra, Barcelone),- in presence and

Vladislav Inozemtsev (founder of the Moscow Center for Post-Industrial Studies) – online

On the following topic:

Deciphering the Russian economic situation and pespectives after two years of war in Ukraine – and sanctions

Discussants: Dmitry Volkov and Julien Vercueil, CREE-Inalco

(Link to the online diffusion: https://zoom.us/j/97808508043)

Abstract:

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has marked the return of prolonged, full-scale armed conflict in Europe. The swift response in the form of cascading sanctions on the part of the EU and the USA, and the exit of western technological companies were designed to limit Russia’s means (financial, technological but also political) at engaging in prolonged warfare against Ukraine. 

However, two years into the war, Russia’s macroeconomic indicators leave little cause for alarm, oil exports have been reoriented, Chinese consumer products replaced their
EU and US counterparts, parallel imports for high-tech products are now commonplace, while the prospects for economic or political protests remain far-fetched.

Is it too soon to evaluate the consequences of the war and sanctions on Russia’s economy? Is there a certain specificity about Russia’s capitalism that makes it endure through extreme conditions? Have EU and US policy makers done enough to limit Russia’s capacity to wage prolonged war against Ukraine?

Complementary abstract from V. Inozemtsev:

Russia’s Economy in 2024 and Beyond: What to Expect?

Russia’s economy demonstrated a strong resilience to both the war and the sanctions which can be explained first and foremost by its private-sector flexibility and world-class public finance administration. I would argue that for the very start of the war with Ukraine the West possessed quite limited means for undermining the Russian economy (nevertheless, it succeeded in inflicting more harm to itself than to Russia).

I would like to address first of all the change in Russia’s foreign trade flows and their volumes; the impact of militarization on the economic dynamics (both through the extended funding of the military industry and through dispersing money to soldiers and their relatives); the sources of financial stability; the overall mood of the Russian society after the presidential elections and the Crocus City terrorist attack.

My general conclusion would be that Russia may keep its economy running, and even grow, for years (as it may continue with its war efforts) but Russia’s economy is unable to be modernized and developed as the changing composition of trade and investment partners excludes any chance for a significant technology transfer that has been crucial for the rise of the Russian economy in the last quarter century. The Kremlin may deprive the Western investors of their property but cannot create new mechanisms for technological development.

Some texts that might reflect my views on the matter can be found here:

https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2010/10/INOZEMTSEV/19776

https://www.cairn.info/revue-internationale-et-strategique-2013-4-page-157.htm?ref=doi (copy attached)

https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/ifri_inozemstev_exode_juillet_2023.pdf

https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/politique-etrangere/articles-de-politique-etrangere/war-ukraine-how-does-russian (copy attached)

Bios:

Ruben Enikolopov is an ICREA Research Professor at UPF and Barcelona Institute of Political Economy and Governance and a visiting professor at the New Economic School. He is also a Research Fellow at CEPR and a Research Affiliate at the IGC. His research interests include political economy, the economics of mass media, and development economics, with a special focus on the political effects of social media. He has published in American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economic Studies, Econometrica, Proceedings of National Academy of Science, etc. He is aCo-Editor of the Journal of Comparative Economics and a member of the Editorial Boards of the Review of Economic Studies and Journal of European Economic Association.

Dr. Vladislav Inozemtsev is a Russian economist and political scientist, focusing on global economic issues, development of the knowledge economy in the West and modernization of the Third World nations, with special reference to Russia’s history and current policies. He founded the Center for Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow in 1996 and has been its Director ever since, combining this activity with teaching at Moscow State University and the Higher School of Economics and numerous fellowships held in the US (Johns Hopkins University and CSIS) and Europe (DGAP in Berlin, Institute of Human Sciences in Vienna and Warsaw Institute of Advanced Studies, among many others). Dr. Inozemtsev served as an advisor to the Commission on Modernization of the Russian Economy under President Dmitry Medvedev in 2009-2011, as the chief aide to Mikhail Prokhorov’s presidential bid in 2012, and as a member of Russia’s ‘Open Government’ in 2013-2014. He left Russia after the start of the war with Ukraine in 2014 and lives in Washington. Dr. Inozemtsev has authored more than 20 books and is a columnist for the Neue Zürcher Zeitung, NRC Handelsblad, The Independent, Gazeta Wyborcza and La Razon.

Dr. Vladislav Inozemtsev est un économiste et politologue russe qui se concentre sur les questions économiques mondiales, le développement de l’économie de la connaissance en Occident et la modernisation des pays du tiers monde, avec une référence particulière à l’histoire et aux politiques actuelles de la Russie. Il a fondé le Centre d’études post-industrielles à Moscou en 1996 et en est depuis lors le directeur, combinant cette activité avec l’enseignement à l’Université d’État de Moscou et à l’École supérieure d’économie et de nombreuses bourses accordées aux États-Unis (Université Johns Hopkins et CSIS) et en Europe (DGAP à Berlin, Institut des sciences humaines de Vienne et Institut des hautes études de Varsovie, entre autres). Le Dr Inozemtsev a été conseiller auprès de la Commission sur la modernisation de l’économie russe sous le président Dimitri Medvedev de 2009 à 2011, conseiller principal de la candidature présidentielle de Mikhaïl Prokhorov en 2012 et membre du «gouvernement ouvert» de Russie en 2013-2014. Il a quitté la Russie après le début de sa guerre contre l’Ukraine en 2014 et vit à Washington. Dr. Inozemtsev est l’auteur de plus de 20 livres et est un chroniqueur pour Neue Zürcher Zeitung, NRC Handelsblad, The Independent, Gazeta Wyborcza et La Razon.

 

Bien cordialement / Best regards,

Julien


— Julien Vercueil Inalco Vice-président Valorisation et Responsabilité environnementale Vice-President for Valorization and Environmental Responsibility BRICs Seminar, Régulation Review



Citer ce billet
Julien Vercueil (2024, 28 mars). Announcement of the next BRICs seminar: Ruben Enikolopov and Vladislav Inozemtsev on Russian economy’s situation and perspectives. BRICS et économies émergentes. Consulté le 25 mai 2024, à l’adresse https://doi.org/10.58079/w4az

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